| | MODELO DE ESTIMACION DEL CRECIMIENTO ECONOMICO REAL PARA PUERTO RICO |
| | | | | | | Años fiscales | | | | | | | | | |
| | Crecimiento Real del PIB de Estados Unidos (en %) |
| | -4.5 | -4.0 | -3.5 | -3.0 | -2.5 | -2.0 | -1.5 | -1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 3.5 | 4.0 | 4.5 |
| Precio petróleo | Crecimiento Real del PNB de Puerto Rico (en %) |
| $10 | -3.10 | -2.71 | -2.31 | -1.91 | -1.51 | -1.12 | -0.72 | -0.32 | 0.47 | 1.26 | 1.66 | 2.06 | 2.46 | 2.85 | 3.25 | 3.65 | 4.04 |
| $12 | -3.16 | -2.76 | -2.37 | -1.97 | -1.57 | -1.17 | -0.78 | -0.38 | 0.41 | 1.21 | 1.61 | 2.00 | 2.40 | 2.80 | 3.19 | 3.59 | 3.99 |
| $14 | -3.22 | -2.82 | -2.42 | -2.03 | -1.63 | -1.23 | -0.83 | -0.44 | 0.36 | 1.15 | 1.55 | 1.95 | 2.34 | 2.74 | 3.14 | 3.53 | 3.93 |
| $16 | -3.27 | -2.88 | -2.48 | -2.08 | -1.68 | -1.29 | -0.89 | -0.49 | 0.30 | 1.09 | 1.49 | 1.89 | 2.29 | 2.68 | 3.08 | 3.48 | 3.87 |
| $18 | -3.33 | -2.93 | -2.54 | -2.14 | -1.74 | -1.34 | -0.95 | -0.55 | 0.24 | 1.04 | 1.44 | 1.83 | 2.23 | 2.63 | 3.02 | 3.42 | 3.82 |
| $20 | -3.39 | -2.99 | -2.59 | -2.20 | -1.80 | -1.40 | -1.00 | -0.61 | 0.19 | 0.98 | 1.38 | 1.78 | 2.17 | 2.57 | 2.97 | 3.36 | 3.76 |
| $22 | -3.44 | -3.05 | -2.65 | -2.25 | -1.85 | -1.46 | -1.06 | -0.66 | 0.13 | 0.92 | 1.32 | 1.72 | 2.12 | 2.51 | 2.91 | 3.31 | 3.70 |
| $24 | -3.50 | -3.10 | -2.71 | -2.31 | -1.91 | -1.51 | -1.12 | -0.72 | 0.07 | 0.87 | 1.27 | 1.66 | 2.06 | 2.46 | 2.85 | 3.25 | 3.65 |
| $26 | -3.56 | -3.16 | -2.76 | -2.37 | -1.97 | -1.57 | -1.17 | -0.78 | 0.02 | 0.81 | 1.21 | 1.61 | 2.00 | 2.40 | 2.80 | 3.19 | 3.59 |
| $28 | -3.61 | -3.22 | -2.82 | -2.42 | -2.02 | -1.63 | -1.23 | -0.83 | -0.04 | 0.75 | 1.15 | 1.55 | 1.95 | 2.34 | 2.74 | 3.14 | 3.53 |
| $30 | -3.67 | -3.27 | -2.88 | -2.48 | -2.08 | -1.68 | -1.29 | -0.89 | -0.10 | 0.70 | 1.10 | 1.49 | 1.89 | 2.29 | 2.68 | 3.08 | 3.48 |
| $32 | -3.73 | -3.33 | -2.93 | -2.54 | -2.14 | -1.74 | -1.34 | -0.95 | -0.15 | 0.64 | 1.04 | 1.44 | 1.83 | 2.23 | 2.63 | 3.02 | 3.42 |
| $34 | -3.78 | -3.39 | -2.99 | -2.59 | -2.19 | -1.80 | -1.40 | -1.00 | -0.21 | 0.58 | 0.98 | 1.38 | 1.78 | 2.17 | 2.57 | 2.97 | 3.36 |
| $36 | -3.84 | -3.44 | -3.05 | -2.65 | -2.25 | -1.85 | -1.46 | -1.06 | -0.27 | 0.53 | 0.93 | 1.32 | 1.72 | 2.12 | 2.51 | 2.91 | 3.31 |
| $38 | -3.90 | -3.50 | -3.10 | -2.71 | -2.31 | -1.91 | -1.51 | -1.12 | -0.32 | 0.47 | 0.87 | 1.27 | 1.66 | 2.06 | 2.46 | 2.85 | 3.25 |
| $40 | -3.95 | -3.56 | -3.16 | -2.76 | -2.36 | -1.97 | -1.57 | -1.17 | -0.38 | 0.41 | 0.81 | 1.21 | 1.61 | 2.00 | 2.40 | 2.80 | 3.19 |
| $42 | -4.01 | -3.61 | -3.22 | -2.82 | -2.42 | -2.02 | -1.63 | -1.23 | -0.44 | 0.36 | 0.75 | 1.15 | 1.55 | 1.95 | 2.34 | 2.74 | 3.14 |
| $44 | -4.07 | -3.67 | -3.27 | -2.88 | -2.48 | -2.08 | -1.68 | -1.29 | -0.49 | 0.30 | 0.70 | 1.10 | 1.49 | 1.89 | 2.29 | 2.68 | 3.08 |
| $46 | -4.12 | -3.73 | -3.33 | -2.93 | -2.53 | -2.14 | -1.74 | -1.34 | -0.55 | 0.24 | 0.64 | 1.04 | 1.44 | 1.83 | 2.23 | 2.63 | 3.02 |
| $48 | -4.18 | -3.78 | -3.39 | -2.99 | -2.59 | -2.19 | -1.80 | -1.40 | -0.61 | 0.19 | 0.58 | 0.98 | 1.38 | 1.78 | 2.17 | 2.57 | 2.97 |
| $50 | -4.24 | -3.84 | -3.44 | -3.05 | -2.65 | -2.25 | -1.85 | -1.46 | -0.66 | 0.13 | 0.53 | 0.93 | 1.32 | 1.72 | 2.12 | 2.51 | 2.91 |
| $54 | -4.35 | -3.95 | -3.56 | -3.16 | -2.76 | -2.36 | -1.97 | -1.57 | -0.78 | 0.02 | 0.41 | 0.81 | 1.21 | 1.61 | 2.00 | 2.40 | 2.80 |
| $58 | -4.46 | -4.07 | -3.67 | -3.27 | -2.88 | -2.48 | -2.08 | -1.68 | -0.89 | -0.10 | 0.30 | 0.70 | 1.10 | 1.49 | 1.89 | 2.29 | 2.68 |
| $60 | -4.52 | -4.12 | -3.73 | -3.33 | -2.93 | -2.53 | -2.14 | -1.74 | -0.95 | -0.15 | 0.24 | 0.64 | 1.04 | 1.44 | 1.83 | 2.23 | 2.63 |
| $64 | -4.63 | -4.24 | -3.84 | -3.44 | -3.05 | -2.65 | -2.25 | -1.85 | -1.06 | -0.27 | 0.13 | 0.53 | 0.93 | 1.32 | 1.72 | 2.12 | 2.51 |
| $68 | -4.75 | -4.35 | -3.95 | -3.56 | -3.16 | -2.76 | -2.36 | -1.97 | -1.17 | -0.38 | 0.02 | 0.42 | 0.81 | 1.21 | 1.61 | 2.00 | 2.40 |
| $70 | -4.80 | -4.41 | -4.01 | -3.61 | -3.22 | -2.82 | -2.42 | -2.02 | -1.23 | -0.44 | -0.04 | 0.36 | 0.76 | 1.15 | 1.55 | 1.95 | 2.34 |
| $74 | -4.92 | -4.52 | -4.12 | -3.73 | -3.33 | -2.93 | -2.53 | -2.14 | -1.34 | -0.55 | -0.15 | 0.25 | 0.64 | 1.04 | 1.44 | 1.83 | 2.23 |
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| Nota: | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| Si el precio de petróleo fuese $54.00 y el crecimiento real de E.U. fuera 4%; el crecimiento real de P.R. sería = | | 2.40 | | | | | Proyecciones 2006 y 2007 | | |
| Dado el error estandar de = | 0.64823088 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | | | El intérvalo de confianza= |  | El límite superior = | | 3.05 | | | | Variables | 2006 a/ | 2007 b/ | | |
| | | | | | El límite inferior = | | 1.75 | | | | oilp | $54.00 | $31.67 | | |
| Ecuación de regresión: | | | | | | | | | | | | eug | 3.3 | 4.0 | | |
| prg =0.754+ 0.794eug - 0.0283oilp | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| prg =crecimiento real del PNB real de Puerto Rico | | | | | | | | | | prg | 1.84 | 3.03 | | |
| eug =crecimiento real del PIB real de Estados Unidos | | | | | | | | | gpr Max | 2.49 | 3.68 | | |
| oilp = precio del barril de petróleo West Texas Intermediate | | | | | | | | | gpr Min | 1.20 | 2.39 | | |
| R2 =0.77 | D.W. =2.47 | | | | | | | | | | | | a/ proyección Consenso 60 Business Week Dec 26,2005 /Jan 2, 2006 | |
| Datos entre 1995 y 2005 | | | | | | | | | | | | b/ el autor | | | | |
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| © 2006; Dr. José Israel Alameda Lozada | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
